[Webbing Web] The trend of "crazy cotton prices" soaring in 2010 did not continue in 2011. After the spot price of cotton in March 2011 exceeded 34,000 yuan/ton, it fell all the way in less than two months To 24,000 yuan / ton, plunged nearly 30%.

　　In 2010, the international market recovered, but domestic cotton production fell by 9% due to drought, forming expectations of rising cotton prices. As a result, hot money entered, large enterprises hoarded goods, and pushed up cotton prices.

　　In March 2011, the state issued a minimum cotton purchase price of 19,800 yuan/ton. This is undoubtedly a major bearish for speculators, and the futures market has plummeted. Zheng Mian continued to decline from the historical high of 34,870 yuan/ton created on February 17, and dropped all the way to 24,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 31%.

　　At the same time, the rapid decline in cotton prices also stems from the sluggish downstream industry. Due to the rapid decline in cotton yarn prices, downstream yarn mills dare not purchase, and the main way is to consume the previous inventory. In order to return funds and ship as soon as possible, spinning mills basically sell at a loss. Towards the end of June, some cotton companies are under more pressure to repay loans. Both cotton merchants and textile companies are concerned that domestic policies will continue to tighten in the second half of the year.

　　In addition, the escalation of the European debt crisis caused the dollar to rebound sharply, and international cotton prices continued to fall sharply. On June 17, the international cotton index (M) representing the average CIF price of imported cotton from China's main port was calculated at 1% tariff, and the import cost in RMB was 27363 yuan/ton, down 6.3% from the previous week; , The import cost of renminbi was 27,666 yuan/ton, down 6.2%.

　　Weather factors:

　　The domestic drought situation has basically been lifted, and the extent of the floods is relatively small. In addition, local cotton fields affected by the disaster can also be replanted in time. If the recent weather gradually returns to normal, the domestic cotton price is likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern.

　　Drought conditions have escalated in most cotton-producing regions in the United States, and the proportion of severe or very severe regions has increased to 16.4%, the highest ratio in the same period in the past 8 years. In addition, the market expects that the delivery cotton inventory is insufficient, and the international cotton price may rebound, but rebound The space may be limited by the unfavorable environment and the sluggish downstream demand, including the recent general downturn in US macro data and the unclear signs of a recovery in downstream demand.

　　Taken together, the domestic and foreign futures markets are currently maintaining a weak and consolidating pattern of consolidation, while the domestic macroeconomic market continues to tighten, coupled with the "buy up, not down" purchases of raw materials by textile companies, the downstream textile companies continue to limit production suspension. The price index of domestic cotton 328 continued to decline recently. And Zheng Mian's trend is generally under pressure. Recently, due to some external factors, the whole is still in a downward and oscillating trend.