[Weaving Ribbon News] Various textile raw materials led by cotton have suffered a sharp fall recently. Chemical fiber, cotton spinning enterprises, spinning mills, weaving mills, apparel enterprises, and the entire industrial chain are covered by nests. On the one hand, people in the industry struggled to think about the possible reasons for the fierce fluctuations in textile raw materials, and after many failures, they still tried to predict the market outlook; on the other hand, they were more aware of the problems that have occurred in the supply of textile raw materials, and explored it Long-term sustainable development. As a result, the first "China Textile Raw Material Market Forum" came into being.

　　Tight supply and demand balance of cotton in the past two years

　　Although the pattern of textile raw materials has never been static, the situation in the past year has attracted more attention.

　　Natural fibers, mainly cotton, and chemical fibers, mainly polyester and viscose fibers, have long constituted the most important raw material pattern in the textile and apparel industry. After undergoing this process of growth and decline, natural fibers and chemical fibers each own half of the country. Originally, with the economic development and social progress, more and more people began to "return to nature", more inclined to use relatively comfortable, natural cotton and other natural fiber products. However, the sudden price of Khmer cotton caught people off guard, and the remarks such as "the era of low cotton price is gone forever" and "cotton may only be used in high-end products" have gradually gained wide recognition in the industry through the mouth of experts.

　　Gao Fang, executive vice president of China Cotton Association, introduced the relevant situation of the 2010/2011 cotton year at this forum. According to the forecast, domestic cotton production is about 6.65 million tons in that year, national cotton dumps 1 million tons, and is expected to import 3 million tons (1.95 million tons have been imported as of April 2011), with a total resource of about 10.65 million tons; yarn output It is expected to reach 27 million tons (up to 18.13 million tons as of April), consumption will total 10.6 million tons, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. In addition, the current national cotton turnover inventory is around 125 million tons, and the sales progress is about 90%. The remaining cotton is basically concentrated in the hands of farmers in the Yellow River Basin.

　　As a major producer of high-quality cotton and an important source of domestic cotton imports, US cotton cultivation is not optimistic. According to Mao Kailin, China Director of the American International Cotton Association, the current drought in Texas is not conducive to cotton growth. At the same time, the price of corn and soybeans in the United States is higher than that of cotton, which has kept the willingness of American cotton farmers to grow cotton. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast, the 2010/2011 world cotton production is about 1.153 million bales (about 25.02 million tons), and the consumption is 1.166 million bales (about 25.3 million tons); the 2011/2012 world cotton production is slightly An increase of approximately 1.275 million bales (approximately 27.67 million tons) and consumption of approximately 1.20 million bales (approximately 26.04 million tons). In the past two years, the world cotton supply and demand situation has also been in a tight balance.

　　Cotton has become expensive and has insufficient output. The output of natural fibers such as wool, hemp and silk is very limited and there is no possibility of substantial growth. This means that the raw material structure of the textile industry will undergo major changes. In theory, chemical fiber will occupy an increasing proportion.

　　Viscose raw material bottleneck is very prominent

　　Since chemical fiber is the biggest growth point of textile raw materials in the future, is it enough to vigorously develop chemical fiber? Things are obviously not that simple. Judging from the current situation, although polyester-based chemical fiber varieties are taking the road of "ultra-imitation cotton", the varieties that really have the comfortable characteristics of cotton are still viscose fibers. Therefore, the development space of viscose fiber is very obvious. But the deadly thing is that the shortage of viscose raw material pulp has become a bottleneck restricting the development of the industry.

　　Wang Xiaobo, director of the Technical Center of Zhejiang Fulida Co., Ltd., analyzed the use of domestic viscose raw materials in detail. More than 90% of the domestic viscose industry originally used cotton pulp as raw materials. These pulp mills are relatively scattered, with a large number and small scale, no raw material control ability, and quality is difficult to guarantee. After 2000, the domestic viscose fiber production capacity has continued to expand, but cotton pulp is limited by limited cotton linters resources, and it is difficult to expand production on a large scale. The output is only 600,000 to 700,000 tons. Pulp. By 2010, the proportion of domestic wood pulp use has exceeded that of cotton pulp by 60%. The dependence of wood pulp imports remains high, and pricing power is in the hands of relevant foreign companies.